Influential Democrats Confident 'Religious Liberty Bill' Veto Can Survive Potential Veto Session

Despite a Republican majority in both the Missouri General Assembly and the State Senate, influential Democrats say they believe Governor Jay Nixon's veto of Senate Bill 749 would survive a potential override attempt in September.

That's one of several findings of the inaugural Blue Arch survey conducted by Missouri Patch sites. 

More than 50 influential Democrats, primarily from the St. Louis area, but not exclusively, were asked using an automated survey tool what they thought about a variety of questions tied to the Governor's action on the bill, which would in part, allow health care providers, and health care sponsors, among others to decline or refuse  "coverage for, abortion, contraception, or sterilization in a health plan if such items or procedures are contrary to the religious beliefs or moral convictions of such employer."

Twenty-seven responses were collected.

When asked if they believed Democrats can stop Republicans from pulling together the 2/3 majority necessary to override in the House, 44.4 percent answered that they somewhat agreed, while 14.8 percent did so strongly. 14.8 percent disagreed strongly while 11.1 percent somewhat disagreed.

In the Senate, the margins tightened up. Thirty-Seven (37) percent somewhat agreed, while 11.1 percent strongly agreed. 18.5 percent of respondents somewhat disagreed while 14.5 percent disagreed.

In each question about the bodies, 11.1 percent offered no opinion.

The move to veto the legislation clearly was favored by the party's base.

When asked if stopping the "Religious Liberty Bill" is the most important women's rights issue before the state of Missouri in 2012, 37 percent said they strongly agreed, with 44.4 percent somewhat in agreement.

Given a chance to analyze the political implications of the decision, 7.4 percent said it would give Republicans ammunition late in the election cycle, while 3.7 percent offered that it would give a Republican candidate for Governor an opportunity to court conservative Democrats and Independents.

About Patch Blue Arch/Red Arch Surveys

Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. Interviews for this poll were conducted between July 16 and July 20, 2012.

Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.

If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.

Blue Arch Roster: Shelley Welsch (University City Mayor), Jake Zimmerman (St. Louis County Assessor), Bert Boxerman (Creve Coeur Township Committeeman), Tracy McCreery (State Representative), Jeanne Antoine (Olivette City Council), Missy Waldman (Olivette City Council), Richard Callow (PR Strategist), John Callahan (Committeeman for St. Charles County Township), Julie Biermann (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Charissa Mayes (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Jerry Daugherty (St. Charles County Councilman), Keith English (Florissant City Councilman/State Rep. candidate), Mary Elizabeth Dorsey (Florissant Township Committeewoman), Chuck Banks (Former Jefferson County Executive), Jo Ann Karll (DNC Convention delegate), Mary Broida (Fenton Committeewoman), Bob Usher (Voter), Tammy Vent (Rock Township Committeewoman), LaDonna Appelbaum (Convention Delegate), Timothy Green (State Senator), Gina Mitten (Richmond Heights Councilmember/State Rep. Candidate), Jill Schupp (State Representative), Jim Descher (Voter), Ken Curtis (West County Democrats Co-Chair), Steve Biggs (Meramec Township Committeeman), John Niemeyer (Meramec Township), Jim Frain  (Voter), Julie Dougherty (Voter), Linda Robson (Voter), Jim McHugh (Aide to former St. Louis County Executive), Molly McHugh (St. Louis County Planning Commission), Bob Burns (Affton School Board), Mark Powell (Former Arnold Mayor), John Messmer (Former DNC alternative delegate), Karl Frank, Jr. (Former Mehlville School Board Member/Activist), Donna Seidel (activist), Tom Diehl (Former School Board Member/Activist), Jim Barrett (Activist), Harvey Ferdman (Maryland Heights Township 2nd VP), Rod Jennings (University City School Board Member), Jane Dueker (Former Assistant AG/Chief of Staff To Governor Bob Holden), Gina Walsh (State Senate Candidate), Morton Todd (St. Charles County Democratic Committee Chairman), Mary "Kate" Laughlin (Voter), Rod Hoffman (State Rep. Candidate), Beverly Cowling (Voter), Bill Stinson (State Rep.), Russ Craven (blogger), Brynn Palmer (Voter), Theresa Borchert (Voter), Jim Karll (Voter), Jeff Wagener (Former St. Louis County Councilman), Pat Dolan (St. Louis County Council), Stacey Newman (State Representative), Cheryl Hibbeler (Former St. Charles County Council Representative), Deb Lavender (State Rep. Candidate)