Patch Democrats Polled: Barack Obama Would Not Win Missouri

The latest 'Blue Arch' survey of activist Democrats asked respondents about the presidential race, the Akin-McCaskill U.S. Senate contest and what Democrats should do to counter a possible post-convention bounce for Mitt Romney.

If the election were held today, President Barack Obama would not carry the Show-Me State.

That's the biggest finding in the latest Patch 'Blue Arch' survey of current and former Democratic party officials and activists, taken between August 27-30. Just over 50 people were surveyed and 31 responded using an automated survey tool.

When asked, to describe their state of agreement with the question: If the election were held today, Barack Obama would carry the state of Missouri, 41.9 percent said they somewhat disagreed, while 22.6 completely disagreed.

While some observers wondered if the fallout from GOP U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin's remarks about  might help put Missouri back in play nationally, most polls show Mitt Romney does maintain a lead over President Obama here.

Other Findings:

  • When asked if they believed Rep. Akin would remain as Senator Claire McCaskill's Republican opponent without a GOP-affiliated independent candidacy, 71 percent said they agreed in some way.
  • 77.4 percent of those polled said if the Senate election were held today, they completely agreed McCaskill would defeat Akin. The rest of those surveyed (22.6 percent) said they Somewhat agreed.

Patch asked Democrats what they'd advise the Obama campaign to do to counter a possible post-convention bounce for the Romney/Ryan ticket. Here were some of their suggestions:

Give specific facts and figures

Have a complete recovery plan

Keep reaching out to voters that are any flavor besides rich white folks

Talk about Ryan budget, rape tax cuts for wealthy , out of touch Romney

Let Obama do what he does best which is relate to his constituency. The addition of Bill Clinton will help bolster the Democratic economic credentials. Also, a clear attempt at firming up the Hispanic vote would make a Romney victory much less likely.


About The Red Arch/Blue Arch Surveys

Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. 

Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.

If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.

Blue Arch Roster

Blue Arch Roster: Shelley Welsch (University City Mayor), Jake Zimmerman (St. Louis County Assessor), Bert Boxerman (Creve Coeur Township Committeeman), Tracy McCreery (State Representative), Jeanne Antoine (Olivette City Council), Missy Waldman (Olivette City Council), Richard Callow (PR Strategist), John Callahan (Committeeman for St. Charles County Township), Julie Biermann (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Charissa Mayes (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Jerry Daugherty (St. Charles County Councilman), Keith English (Florissant City Councilman/State Rep. candidate), Mary Elizabeth Dorsey (Florissant Township Committeewoman), Chuck Banks (Former Jefferson County Executive), Jo Ann Karll (DNC Convention delegate), Mary Broida (Fenton Committeewoman), Bob Usher (Voter), Tammy Vent (Rock Township Committeewoman), LaDonna Appelbaum (Convention Delegate), Timothy Green (State Senator), Gina Mitten (Richmond Heights Councilmember/State Rep. Candidate), Jill Schupp (State Representative), Jim Descher (Voter), Ken Curtis (West County Democrats Co-Chair), Steve Biggs (Meramec Township Committeeman), John Niemeyer (Meramec Township), Jim Frain  (Voter), Julie Dougherty (Voter), Linda Robson (Voter), Jim McHugh (Aide to former St. Louis County Executive), Molly McHugh (St. Louis County Planning Commission), Bob Burns (Affton School Board), Mark Powell (Former Arnold Mayor), John Messmer (Former DNC alternative delegate), Karl Frank, Jr. (Former Mehlville School Board Member/Activist), Donna Seidel (activist), Tom Diehl (Former School Board Member/Activist), Jim Barrett (Activist), Harvey Ferdman (Maryland Heights Township 2nd VP), Rod Jennings (University City School Board Member), Jane Dueker (Former Assistant AG/Chief of Staff To Governor Bob Holden), Gina Walsh (State Senate Candidate), Morton Todd (St. Charles County Democratic Committee Chairman), Mary "Kate" Laughlin (Voter), Rod Hoffman (State Rep. Candidate), Beverly Cowling (Voter), Bill Stinson (State Rep.), Russ Craven (blogger), Theresa Borchert (Voter), Jim Karll (Voter), Jeff Wagener (Former St. Louis County Councilman), Pat Dolan (St. Louis County Council), Stacey Newman (State Representative), Cheryl Hibbeler (Former St. Charles County Council Representative), Deb Lavender (State Rep. Candidate), Kevin O'Malley (Fundraiser/Alternate Convention Delegate), Susan Meredith (State Rep. candidate), Susan Montee (Lt. Governor candidate), Bob Burns (State Rep. Candidate)

martin, bob September 11, 2012 at 05:34 PM
PaulRevere September 11, 2012 at 06:02 PM
People Person: Only the "uninformed" would accept this street speech. Make yourself a hero to Liberalism, will you ? How will Veterans lose? Did you read the Romney Budget? NY times "brought it ALL to light". Yet it's still "hidden in the budget". It's "Complicated" ? "so the Democrats have left it alone. You know what , you just admitted that Democrats do not know how to deal with Complicated issues. That is why This President and Joe Biden will not discuss the complicated Financial issues to their constituents. They and the NY times are the same people. Class warfare is much simpler to understand. Barack Obama should not win Missouri , because we are a long way from NY mentality.
RDBet September 11, 2012 at 06:14 PM
A pattern has emerged from Cleveland Heights OH - bob martin's recent comments: Troll State of America: Are You ... -by martin, bob Troll 'We Will Win Iowa' ... -by martin, bob Troll Washington Doesn’t Get It -by martin, bob Troll Patch Democrats Polled: ... -by martin, bob
Dan Harrison September 11, 2012 at 06:42 PM
You need the govt to keep you healthy? See how ridiculous that sounds? Thats YOUR responsibility, not the "system". Not to mention the infringement on liberties, that will be coming. And yeah, the largest tax in WORLD history.
Dan Harrison September 11, 2012 at 06:47 PM
Sounds like you have underlying resentment towards...naw, nevermind, i forgot it doesn't work like that.
Dan Harrison September 11, 2012 at 07:06 PM
Ron Paul was a peanut farmer? heh. Just kidding, but I hear ya brother. The powers that be will continue, especially if we keep the discussion in the two party paradigm. I sure hope my thief and liar beats out the other guys'.
RDBet September 11, 2012 at 07:38 PM
Excuse me, but where was it written that we need government to keep us healthy? I just posted what SSM has on their website -which seems to run contra to the propaganda put forth by the right wing that Catholic-run insitutions are in complete opposition to the ACA. It seems a bit naive to think people going to costly emergency rooms and not paying their bills, (which is what the uninsured ultimately do now) does not cause a burden that is shared by the rest of us. And this bluther about it all being a tax. Well, my health insurance already is a tax. You see, I am healthy and have rarely made a claim (thank you Lord) -so my money is going pay for someone else's care --already. And I am fine with that. I'd prefer that money be used as efficiently as possible - and that does not occur when the uninsured go to ERs for care. Jeesh - Where were you guys during the Bush years in opposing the costly Iraq War? Medicare D Prescription drug bill -it costs a load as well.
PaulRevere September 11, 2012 at 08:57 PM
RDbet: See my answer right below for your SSM post. SSM is a "Medical PROVIDER". over 90% of all Catholic institutions (NON_MEDICAL_PROVIDERS) are against ACA. Read the law and you will note that Medical Providers who normally serviced the needy Will actually get more reimbursements From ACA. So it follows SSM likes that. More Money to them. BUT, more money to them is not coming from the poor. WE ALL ARE GOING TO PAY BILLIONS IN NEW TAXES TO PAY FOR THE 40Million PEOPLE WHO SAY THEY CANNOT AFFORD MEDICAL CARE. We don't need ACA to support the poor. Now you claim Medical Insurance is a "TAX". That's a choice. Can you cancel it? Your Free to do that. Also cancel your auto insurance, your Home insurance , your Life insurance, your cellphone insurance, your "free" public school insurance (called Real Estate Taxes), At least you have a choice to buy whatever YOU want. Stop trying to change the facts of what ACA is. It is NOT healthcare---It is a TAX to buy Insurance. In your own words---"I am healthy and I rarely use it". You "Are fine with paying for others using ER on your money". WELL your insurance already pays that, so why do we need to pay a new TAX to pay for 40 mill poor people AGAIN? Don't you see that Obamacare is a fraud? It is an attempt to get more money to siphon off to more Govt programs We don't need. Stop trying to find some organization who might confirm what you think ACA is. You have all the facts in front of you.
RDBet September 11, 2012 at 09:13 PM
PaulRevere (fka Colbert) - I'll be honest -I typically don't read thru your comments, even when I need a laugh to pick me up...I just see that they exist in ALLCAPS glory, and know that it's pointless drivel. It is doubtful anybody else that frequents the Patch regularly reads thru them, regardless of whether they are your fellow tea-partiers or not. Do not feel bad though, yours aren't the only comments to which I assign zero value, nor do I expect people put much stock in anyone's comments on here -including my own. Sorry if this revelation knocks your 3-cornered hat off your head. Maybe some tea partiers will man up and rally around you and whatever your crusade is. But that is up to them. After all, it is a free country. Later.
martin, bob September 11, 2012 at 09:26 PM
People Person is related to RDbet
V. Scheurich September 12, 2012 at 03:40 PM
Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning terrorists! When will Barack Obama's "Apology Tour" begin for Libya's killing of 4 Americans? http://weaselzippers.us/2012/09/12/obama-campaign-condemns-romney-before-condemning-terrorists-who-attacked-our-embassies/
RDBet September 12, 2012 at 04:06 PM
Since the angry tea partiers figured out "cut and pasting" and this internet thingamajob, it has revolutionized stupidity: Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... Presidential Politics from ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... North Fulton Student ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... Maryland Delegation and ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... 5 Things You Need To Know ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... After the Conventions: Who ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... SPEAK OUT: Best Speaker of ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... Patch Democrats Polled: ...
Devon Seddon September 12, 2012 at 04:50 PM
Obama's Birth Certificate was mentioned in the news this very day. So, once again, guess who doesn't have a clue what he's talking about, and simply resorts to name-calling & attributing his anger, hatred & insanity to others.
Devon Seddon September 12, 2012 at 05:02 PM
Give me an example of "anger" you've found from any tea-party rallies. I think you have the Tea-Party mixed-up with Occupy. But then again, I don't expect you to bring any facts to the table, just personal attacks on those who do their homework, cut & paste or not. I prefer people cutting & pasting facts, than just responding to facts with name-calling & asinine assertions. Actually, it might be you who is revolutionizing stupidity. My challenge to you is to bring some substance from time to time, even though we all know you won't. A point you will undoubtedly prove with another baseless, angry, personal attack, void of facts or substance.
RDBet September 12, 2012 at 05:07 PM
Ok, I'll guess who - you are referring to yourself. Recognizing that you have a problem is a start.
RDBet September 12, 2012 at 05:15 PM
Is V. a friend of yours from one of the tea party rallies or something? Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... September 11 -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... Delegates Say Democratic ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... After the Conventions: Who ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... PHOTOS: Wisconsin National ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... State Republicans Blast ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... Presidential Politics from ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... North Fulton Student ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... Maryland Delegation and ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... 5 Things You Need To Know ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... After the Conventions: Who ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... SPEAK OUT: Best Speaker of ... -by V. Scheurich Obama condemns Romney before.................condemning ... Patch Democrats Polled: ... V. Scheurich
Devon Seddon September 12, 2012 at 05:28 PM
Thank you for another fact-laden intelligent statement. Your guess was wrong, but that's no surprise, why break your streak.
Sarah Mitchell September 12, 2012 at 07:40 PM
Get The Facts The Tea Party are Extremist and Dangerous To America. See Link Below> Some on this board try to push there way on others, and force their agenda, tea-party Ideology is Delusional, and just like the tea-party radicals you represent, and or pretend to represent its wrong, here is some real facts, and if maybe you read the links and study the facts, you might gain better insight to the facts. http://jonathanturley.org/2011/04/17/why-the-tea-party-is-dangerous/ http://act.credoaction.com/take_down/the-ten.html http://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2012/07/23/tea-party-leader-says-all-muslims-a-threat-to-u-s-seeks-recall-of-mccain/ http://act.credoaction.com/take_down/the-ten.html
Dan Harrison September 13, 2012 at 04:31 AM
Sara. I went ahead and checked your links before commenting on your statement, only to find the first was an editorial, not facts. And two are the same page Repubs claiming Tea Party. And the other one, some guys opinion. The tea party is for smaller accountable government, you know, spending, bailouts, constitution. But what bothers me is the use of "radical" and "extremist". Doesn't the govt and media do enough fear mongering? In an age when the Executive (and future) can detain or assassinate Americans (NDAA), i think its irresponsible to throw around that language. I'm not talking PC, I'm talking about labeling any group of Americans critical of government, in the same light as radical islamist, or the like. Freedom of speech, I get it. But it is hard to deny when the Federal watch list grows and grows with American citizens... well for me, THAT scares me. For you?...probably makes you feel safer.
Sarah Mitchell September 13, 2012 at 12:50 PM
Republicans can not stand to be called out for their failures, Congress has the lowest rating ever, their failure is evident, in all they say and do, they created this tea-party radical group to make war with President Obama. But its turned on the like a nemesis, the truth is slowly coming out, and will reveal the types of people that are joined at the hip with this group. The Good thing is the majority of people see through their ideology, there are some on this board that has shown this type of delusional behavior so beware, they might bite, but keep in mind its all bark. LOL
Elizabeth September 13, 2012 at 02:38 PM
"Congress has the lowest rating ever". Yes, and it is filled with Republicans AND Democrats. Both parties are guilty of failing the public.
Mike Blank September 13, 2012 at 03:12 PM
Health care is not a "right". Anything that has to be paid for can be a natural "right". "Rights" refer to things you should be able to DO individual, not things that you feel you should be "given" to you by others.
Mike Blank September 13, 2012 at 03:19 PM
Nor should everyone have a good paying job. That isn't how a free market system works. That is how a socialist system works where they attempt to level everything for everyone so that gets paid similarly. In a free market system things are tiered appropriately by a number of factors. Unfortunately there is no free lunch, everyone can't be well off because we live in a world of scarcity and limited resources. If we made everyone wealthy and restarted the system soon the prices would rise and the value of the monetary system would naturally devaluate due to inflation and once again you'd have poor as some would choose more wisely than others.
RDBet September 13, 2012 at 03:31 PM
Tell the Catholic nuns at SSM that basic healthcare coverage is not a right. It was their statement, not mine. I'm more concerned with the inefficiencies of our health care system, partly caused by failure in the markets.
Devon Seddon September 13, 2012 at 03:43 PM
"Congress has the lowest rating ever" First, that's based on public opinion; polls. You are the perfect example of a public that is uninformed. You always hear Congress this, Congress that, from a HEAVILY biased media. Those are opinions based on the same ignorance you have bought into & continue to spew as if you knew what you were talking about. Are you aware that Congress has passed over 250+ bills (as of Feb) that are sitting dormant on the floor of Senate? No. You didn't. Are you aware that some of those bills are budgets? How could you be? Are you aware that it is a CRIME for the Senate to not pass a budget & that the CRIMINALS in the Senate haven't even addressed it in over 4 years? No. Of course you didn't know. See, we already know the crap you are fed, it's you that doesn't know that the truth is different than what you hear from the media. That's why you have to actually do some homework that is based on fact, not emotion (I thought we already addressed this). You always hear "the Republicans won't work across the aisle", well here's proof that lie is 180 degrees wrong. You also said "Republicans can not stand to be called out for their failures", yet you are totally oblivious to the Democrats' failures & wouldn't address them if you did. You'd just pretend like they aren't there. Fair Housing Regulatory, Insider Trading, Unemployment, Budget, ... pages worth, but you would just act like they aren't there. Give ONE example of "radical" Tea-Party behavior.
Devon Seddon September 13, 2012 at 06:03 PM
The broken economy started with Clinton whether you like it or not. Fair Housing Regulatory Act nearly crashed the economy when Carter tried it, then Clinton reinstituted it even moreso, crashing banks, crashing the housing market (from which all homeowners are still suffering), FORCING banks to loan over a trillion dollars to people who couldn't pay, then buying those worthless loans a minimum of TWICE with taxpayer dollars. The practice of leaving a mess for someone else to clean-up (your grandchildren in this case), has become the only real "staple" of the Democratic Party. Just like Clinton, this President is doing the same thing with all of the new taxes that will go into effect when (potentially) someone else will be blamed for them when they fail, or they will have to spend all of their time undoing them. It's unfortunate, but you don't have even the slightest understanding of how we got in this economic situation. Over-taxing & over-regulating; basically chasing jobs either out of business, or out of the country, hasn't helped those people you claim to be "saving", it's crippled them, and has also managed to add 3% more of the population into that "needy" (Democrat voter-pool) category. "A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul." - George Bernard Shaw As for the Tea-Party comments, why is it you don't believe the government should be accountable with YOUR money? Why is it ok to CRIMINALLY ignore passing a budget?
Devon Seddon September 13, 2012 at 06:29 PM
“The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But under the name of Liberalism, they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program until one day America will be a socialist nation without knowing how it happened.” - Norman Thomas Socialist Party presidential candidate in 1940, 1944 & 1948.
Joseph Robert September 17, 2012 at 01:03 PM
Foreign Policy Achievements President Obama: • Killed Osama Bin Laden • Ended Iraq War • Killed more Al Qaeda leaders than any other President • Supported "Arab Spring" uprising Mitt Romney • None Mitt Romney: NO foreign policy experience in a very DANGEROUS world!
Devon Seddon September 18, 2012 at 06:06 PM
Obama didn't kill Osama Bin Laden. He was even opposed to going after him in the first place, now he's got you tools calling him a hero. PLUS, nearly jeopardized the operation by giving away military secrets. He didn't end the war, it was over, as a matter of fact, he started another one in Afghanistan. The top 4 Al Qaeda leaders were dead before he even became President. You haven't gotten a single campaign promise from the man. You got 53% more unemployment though, hang you hat on that. By your logic, he must've also caused the recent Embassy Attacks, since he's so responsible for everything. You obviously have no use for truth, you seem to prefer erroneous campaign claims, all lacking any facts to back them up.
Sensible? I think so September 18, 2012 at 06:54 PM
Peter Bergen or Devon Seddon, who to believe? Bergen: "pile of poppycock served up with heaps of hogwash" Seddon: "this is a 'Christian Nation'" http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/29/opinion/bergen-obama-osama-books/index.html


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