Patch Poll: Missouri Democrats Energized About President Obama's Re-Election Chances

The latest Patch 'Blue Arch' survey took the pulse of Missouri Democrats following the party's convention in Charlotte.

More than a few political observers have noted in the 2012 election cycle that President Barack Obama's re-election campaign has failed to match the excitement brought on by the 2008 campaign. But according to a survey of Democratic party activists in Missouri, 85 percent of those polled say they are more confident in the President's chances of winning in November now that we're through the convention season.

That is one of the findings of the latest Patch Blue Arch survey of Democratic officeholders, candidates, voters and other activists taken September 10-12. Fifty-two people were surveyed and 27 people responded.

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Fourteen point 8 percent of the panelists say their minds have not changed since the conventions.

Will that enthusiasm about the President's chances translate into turnout?

When asked if "The Democratic convention provided the party with the momentum it needs to get the base to turn out for what is expected to be a close election," 92.5 percent agreed in some way, while 3.7 disagreed. One respondent had no opinion.

Missouri Democrats told Patch in survey prior to the DNC 

What Worked, What Didn't

Former President Bill Clinton was the star of the convention in the eyes of many, with 20 of the 27 respondents mentioning his speech as a highlight.

"Bill Clinton's speech. He basically yelled at Democrats for being so apologetic," one person wrote.

Others referenced First Lady Michelle Obama's address and Sandra Fluke, who rose to promience over her congressional testimony regarding Planned Parenthood funding and ensuing comments from talk show host Rush Limbaugh.

Just as was the case in a survey of Missouri Republicans regarding the GOP convention, few respondents mentioned their Presidential nominee as a highlight. In fact, one person mentioned President Obama 

One respondent mentioned the President's "toning down his passionate style of speaking," as a misstep.

Thirteen cited problems with the party's platform which forced delegates into a floor vote to restore "God" to it, as well as clarify that the capitol of Israel should be in Jerusalem.

The Red Arch/Blue Arch Survey 

Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. Interviews for this poll were conducted Sept. 10-12. 

Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.

If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.


Blue Arch Roster

Blue Arch Roster: Shelley Welsch (University City Mayor), Jake Zimmerman (St. Louis County Assessor), Bert Boxerman (Creve Coeur Township Committeeman), Tracy McCreery (State Representative), Jeanne Antoine (Olivette City Council), Missy Waldman (Olivette City Council), Richard Callow (PR Strategist), John Callahan (Committeeman for St. Charles County Township), Julie Biermann (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Charissa Mayes (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Jerry Daugherty (St. Charles County Councilman), Keith English (Florissant City Councilman/State Rep. candidate), Mary Elizabeth Dorsey (Florissant Township Committeewoman), Chuck Banks (Former Jefferson County Executive), Jo Ann Karll (DNC Convention delegate), Mary Broida (Fenton Committeewoman), Bob Usher (Voter), Tammy Vent (Rock Township Committeewoman), LaDonna Appelbaum (Convention Delegate), Timothy Green (State Senator), Gina Mitten (Richmond Heights Councilmember/State Rep. Candidate), Jill Schupp (State Representative), Jim Descher (Voter), Ken Curtis (West County Democrats Co-Chair), Steve Biggs (Meramec Township Committeeman), John Niemeyer (Meramec Township), Jim Frain  (Voter), Julie Dougherty (Voter), Linda Robson (Voter), Jim McHugh (Aide to former St. Louis County Executive), Molly McHugh (St. Louis County Planning Commission), Bob Burns (Affton School Board), Mark Powell (Former Arnold Mayor), John Messmer (Former DNC alternative delegate), Karl Frank, Jr. (Former Mehlville School Board Member/Activist), Donna Seidel (activist), Tom Diehl (Former School Board Member/Activist), Jim Barrett (Activist), Harvey Ferdman (Maryland Heights Township 2nd VP), Rod Jennings (University City School Board Member), Jane Dueker (Former Assistant AG/Chief of Staff To Governor Bob Holden), Gina Walsh (State Senate Candidate), Morton Todd (St. Charles County Democratic Committee Chairman), Mary "Kate" Laughlin (Voter), Rod Hoffman (State Rep. Candidate), Beverly Cowling (Voter), Bill Stinson (State Rep.), Russ Craven (blogger), Theresa Borchert (Voter), Jim Karll (Voter), Jeff Wagener (Former St. Louis County Councilman), Pat Dolan (St. Louis County Council), Stacey Newman (State Representative), Cheryl Hibbeler (Former St. Charles County Council Representative), Deb Lavender (State Rep. Candidate), Kevin O'Malley (Fundraiser/Alternate Convention Delegate), Susan Meredith (State Rep. candidate), Susan Montee (Lt. Governor candidate), Bob Burns (State Rep. Candidate), Jim Karll (St. Charles County Democrats), Gloria Nickerson (Activist), Maureen Rogers-Bouxsein (Activist) 

Happy Customer September 15, 2012 at 01:32 PM
I really don't care what any poll says... I think the Realists will storm the voting booths either way... and that's why the Denialists will lose big across the country, in the White House.
Rich Pope September 16, 2012 at 03:52 AM
Obama is nothing more than a Chicago thug. Anyone who voted for him is a moron.
Caffeinated September 16, 2012 at 04:03 AM
Anyone who makes absolutist statements using the word "thug" is a recidivist pederast.
Larry Lazar September 16, 2012 at 03:05 PM
I voted for Obama before and plan on doing so again. I'm no rocket scientist, but I do consider myself reasonably intelligent and pretty well-informed (I'm fanatical about finding quality sources of information). Can you explain why you would think that I'm a moron?
flyoverland September 16, 2012 at 03:32 PM
Given the Bush Fatigue four years ago and the great campaign run by Obama, I understand why some people voted for him who might not have otherwise done so. A better question is why you are voting for him again in light of the fact that he has failed to deliver on nearly all of the promises he made and while the country is so much worse off than it was. Please do not blame Bush again. Like someone said the other day, "if Obama wins this time, think of the mess he will inherit." It will be his own. I am not a Romney fan, however, I know him to be a very intelligent, highly efficient manager and I think that is what we need to drag us out of this mess. Obama is perhaps one of the most extreme leftist Democrats. Romney is probably one of the most centrist Republicans. Romney has a much better chance of working across the aisle to make things happen. If Obama wins, look back at the last four years. That is what you have in store. Nothing is going to happen except our wheels will dig deeper ruts in the mud. No one is going to get what they want philosophically this time. Romney, at least gives us a shot of getting out of the ditch. Four years from now, I'd rather be in that position than win some talking points war.
Larry Lazar September 16, 2012 at 03:58 PM
As a firm Independent, no, I don't blame Bush, or Obama. I do blame +30 years of "conservative" government policies (yes, this includes under Clinton). These policies gave us the debt everyone seems to be so upset about as well as the greatest income and wealth disparity since right before the great depresssion (I mean RIGHT before). These conservative economic policies are also killing the golden goose upon which our economy depends - a vibrant and growing middle class. You don't fix 30 years of ignorant and short-sighted policies in one Presedential term, especially with the most obstinate, obstructionist, and, well, ill-informed, Congresses in modern history. It will likely take decades of corrective policies to return the US to the economic powerhouse that it was back in the 50's and 60's. Fortunately, given the GOP's current state of disarray, internal and external discontent and an ever shrinking "tent" (really, who haven't they pissed off lately - besides angry and old white men?), it is likely that we'll have more politiicans that are able to think strategically and progressively for a long time to come. Can we say Hillary in 2016? You betcha!
Rockwood 25 September 16, 2012 at 06:51 PM
The "four more years of the same" argument doesn't have legs. Companies are sitting on money; things are getting better, albeit excruciatingly slow. The politics that has given us years of stifled economy ater a near-disasterous crash literally can't keep the country down that much longer. Demand is building up. It WILL be better the next four years regardless of who is POTUS. Congress is approaching places where they HAVE to act and can't continue as they have. The difference will be in HOW things break loose and who will benefit the most and the quickest. In this, the candidates offer very different roadmaps. But a duplicate 4 years is not a possibility.
PaulRevere September 17, 2012 at 05:35 AM
Would any of you care to consider these facts: Between years 2001 to 2006 (who was President?) Here are economic statistics reached sometime in those years. 1) Dow 30 StockMarket 14,000 (still a record) 2) Unemployment rate 5.5% 3) Tax cuts for the middle-class and Upper class (saved this country from 911 financial collapse) Millions of Jobs were saved because of the Bush tax cuts. Half this country was out of work from the Financial NY collapse 4) No terror attacks after 911. We were safe. (vs. NOW?) 5) Boom in housing prices at heights never before seen. (vs Now in weak recover) 6) a congress approved war that eliminated Saddam H. (anyone want to take a guess what Saddam would be doing right now?) 7) Afghanistan? Bush was not all in . (it became Obama's right war) 8) Record number of new business startups. (now still major closings) 9) Gasoline prices well under $2 gallon 10) 2006 The Democrats took total control of congress (Well, the rest is history--the economy tanked AFTER Republicans Lost congress in 2006) That is a fact. F/Y/I-- The economy took off in CLinton years starting 1994--The year Republicans TOOK control of congress Obama's Economy is FALSE. It is a Borrowed Economy. Every thing done for the last 4 years has been Borrowed. Democratic energy is based on "FREEBIES" to be paid by someone else. There is no FORWARD anything to be excited about. Promises all over again. Printing money support will doom USA.
Joseph Robert September 17, 2012 at 12:50 PM
Foreign Policy Achievements President Obama: • Killed Osama Bin Laden • Ended Iraq War • Killed more Al Qaeda leaders than any other President • Supported "Arab Spring" uprising Romney • None Romney: NO foreign policy experience in a very DANGEROUS world!
Sensible? I think so September 17, 2012 at 09:12 PM
If a theory depends on questionable cause, maybe the theory isn't valid. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
J. Carter (ROGERS) September 18, 2012 at 11:16 PM
The people the Democrats have calling on cell phones from the South Cunty area, will not stop calling me, I have asked them to stop calling, told them I am voting democratic but cannot walk and do door to door campioning, they tell my I can, How can someone that does not know my health sitution tell me what I can and cannot do? I block that number and they just call from another cell phone! This is not good ! please CHECK your volunteer staff!!!!!
flyoverland September 18, 2012 at 11:46 PM
Why would you vote for someone who cannot control his staff?
flyoverland September 18, 2012 at 11:53 PM
Of course it has legs. Obama has proven he will not compromise and the GOP will control Congress. Business has already voted. They will not start hiring (in the US) until they see the moving van backing into the White House. Business will start to expand, overseas. That is where much of their profits are being generated now. That will only increase. I predict, once the piper knocks on the door demanding his pay, things could be a lot worse over the next four years. You are living an FED created illusion. They are nearly out of bullets. With this guy in office again, the guy who was shown on tape today saying he believes in redistribution, it could be a whole lot worse. By worse, I mean picture the present, but with runaway inflation and 18% interest rates. Can't happen. Check out the Carter years.
Urial Ventris September 21, 2012 at 06:05 PM
I've seen this election before, and so have you. Carter was running neck and neck with Regan, according to the pollsters, right up to and including on the election day. The similarities are so striking in terms of the shambles economy, a Middle East on fire, the job approval numbers, the right track vs wrong track numbers, and the media generated polls that have this as dead heat that it’s almost an uncanny convergence of history repeating itself within a generation. This is the SAME election by every metric that counts. Past performance is no assurance of future returns, of course, but you can’t fail to see these facts. I would say that Carter did not enjoy such an overwhelmingly supportive media that has lost all worries of losing its fig-leaf, but you’re kidding yourself if you think that a majority of Americans are given their fundamental beliefs and political positions by reporters. The 1980 election was one of the biggest landslide and blow-out elections in US history. You can “hope” that the same thing isn’t going to happen again, but with the same numbers it was Regan 46 states and Carter 4 states in the final count.


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