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Patch Poll: Missouri Republicans Concerned About Dave Spence's Chances In November

The latest "Red Arch" survey takes the pulse of Missouri Republicans regarding statewide races on the November ballot.

Missouri Republicans are bullish on the chances of Secretary of State candidate Shane Schoeller and Lt. Governor Peter Kinder's chances for re-election in November, but a majority are concerned that Dave Spence will not defeat Governor Jay Nixon next month.

That's the biggest finding in the latest Patch "Red Arch" survey, a non-scientific project asking Republican activists questions tied to current issues in the 2012 election cycle. More than 70 people were invited to participate and 30 responded.

When asked "Which statewide candidate are you most concerned about in November," a majority, 64.3 percent, named Spence. Next was Attorney General nominee Ed Martin and State Treasurer nominee Cole McNary at 14.3 percent, and Kinder at 7.1 percent.

Why? Some of the respondents, when given a chance to elaborate on their decisions, cited Spence's lack of name recognition, while others offered more of a commentary on Governor Nixon more than a critique of their own candidate:

"Nixon hasn't done anything "wrong" because he hasn't done anything. That's always hard to beat," said one, while another suggested Nixon' had made political hay from tragedy. 

"Nixon has wooed the citizens of Joplin and other southwest voters the last 16 months spending more time there than anywhere else. He has taken great political advantage of the Joplin tornado. I believe that area of the state will be bought off by his actions. That will give him a victory," the respondent wrote.

When asked "Which statewide candidate are you most confident will win in November?" State Rep. Shane Schoeller, running for Secretary of State against Democrat Jason Kander, came in first with 43.3 percent, while 33.3 percent chose Kinder, followed by Ed Martin at 13.3 percent, Dave Spence at 6.7 percent and McNary at 3.3 percent.

When asked if they would want the Democratic National Convention here in St. Louis in 2016 (Local and state officials are expected to launch a new effort to win the event after finishing second to Charlotte in 2012), 60 percent of Republicans who responded said yes, while 40 percent said no.

The Red Arch/Blue Arch Survey 

Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. Interviews for this poll were conducted the week of Sept. 4. 

Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.

If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.

 

 

 

 

The Red Arch Roster:

Ruth Springer (former Olivette Mayor), Frederic Steinbach (former Chesterfield Mayor), Randy Jotte (Candidate for Congress), Katy Forand (Gravois Township Committeewoman) Scott Rupp (State Senator/Secretary of State Candidate), Rick Stokes (Wentzville Alderman/State Rep. Candidate), Charlie Hinderliter (State Legislative campaign manager), Mark Parkinson (State Rep.), Chrissy Sommer (State Rep.), Jon Bennett (St. Charles Township Committeeman), Eugene Dokes (Chairman of St. Charles County Republican Central Committee), Chuck Gross (former State Senator), Cheryl Bates (St. Charles Young Republicans President), Penny Henke (St. Charles County Republican Central Committeewoman), Joe Cronin (St. Charles County Council), Terry Hollander (St. Charles County Council), Mike Nunnery (Republican voter), Jim Pepper (O'Fallon City Council), David Blanke (Lewis & Clark Republican Township Committeeman), Robyn Hamlin (Candidate for Congress), Don Bickowski (Jefferson County Council member), Linda Van De Riet (Jefferson County Republican Central Committee member), Renee Reuter (Jefferson County Council Member), D.J. Cully (Jefferson County Council candidate), Roy W. Sims (High Ridge Township Republican committeeman candidate), Celeste Witzel (GOP Committeewoman for the Oakville Township), Alan Leaderbrand (GOP Committeeman for the Lemay Township), Kourtney Lamb (President of the Brentwood Young Republicans), Dennis Broadbooks , (Wild Horse Township), Eileen Tyrrell (Meramec Township Member), Judy Hon (Chesterfield Township Committeewoman), Anne Gassel (Wild Horse Township Committeewoman), Chris Howard (Lafayette Township Committeeman/Convention Delegate), Kevin Rejent (Election Attorney), Richard C. Rowe (Republican voter), Rekha Sharma (State Rep. Candidate), Darin Morley (Reboot Congress blogger), Mark Zinn (GOP Consultant), Cynthia Davis (candidate for Lt. Governor), Sue Allen (State Rep.), Claire Chosid (Republican voter), John Diehl (State Rep.), Lee Presser (blogger/tv host), Ed Martin (Attorney General candidate), Carl Bearden (Former State Rep/Exec. Dir. United for Missouri), Michael Morton (Regional Political Director/Ann Wagner campaign), Christopher Brooks (Candidate For County Central Committee), Marsha Haefner (State Rep.), Cloria Brown (State Rep.), Philip Scherry (Rock Hill Alderman), Derek Michael Spencer (Regional Political Director/Brad Lager For Lt. Gov.), Brian Spencer (State Rep. candidate), Catherine Dreher (Candidate for Committeewoman candidate), Annette Read (Candidate, Missouri River Township GOP Committeewoman), Chris Gard (State Rep. candidate), Anthony Pousosa (St. Louis County Council candidate), Kit Crancer (Chief of Staff, State Senator Jane Cunningham), Cole McNary (Candidate for State Treasurer), Michael Burr (Creve Coeur Township Committee Candidate), Maria Burr (Creve Coeur Township Committee Candidate), Bill Stouffer (Candidate for Secretary of State), Tyler Holyfield (State Rep. Candidate), David Wissler (Gravois Township Committee candidate), Pat Walker (Maryland Heights Township Committee candidate), Maggie Walker (Maryland Heights Township Committee candidate), Scott Pinkham (Boone Township Committee candidate), Teresa Douglas (Lemay Township committee candidate), Larry McGowen (Wildwood City Council), Marc Perez (former State Rep. candidate), Arthur Merdinian (Mayor of Olivette), Walt Young (Former Ballwin Mayor), Bryan Koen (Florissant Township Committeeman)

 

 

 

Earl Higgins October 01, 2012 at 01:08 PM
Despite Karl Rove's fake grassroots organization pouring millions of dollars into negative campaigning against him, I think many Missourians on both sides of the aisle believe Jay Nixon has done a decent job governing this state. Running against such a popular governor is really an uphill battle.
flyoverland October 01, 2012 at 01:37 PM
I wouldn't call Nixon popular, I would call him invisible, versus his days as Attorney General when the most dangerous place in the world was between him and a news camera. Nixon half-heartedly stomachs the democrat agenda. You can tell he doesn't agree with it and only does the minimum to get re-elected. With the GOP controlled legislature, he can't do too much damage. Jay's ads about Spence and the bank are so over the top that I just can't vote for someone who wants the job that badly. The guy was a director on a community bank board, something that historically has been considered a civic duty. It was not "his bank," he didn't own it, or manage it. All banks took TARP funds whether they wanted to didn't matter. They were compelled by the Treasury Dept. And, he took out a loan for a second home, wow. Any bank in the world would have lent him that money. He is paying interest on the loan which is helping the bank repay the TARP loans. How is that a bad thing? That ad is shameless and is beyond the pale.
Bryan Andrews October 01, 2012 at 01:59 PM
I'm a republican and Spence just doesn't seem to have it Missouri has a dismal history of republican governor candidates. Blunt was a disaster the republican party has hidden him away sorta like they did with Bush and his team.
John Ridenhower October 01, 2012 at 08:16 PM
As far as I am concerned Nixon has 2 things going for him - he didn't do much, and he balanced the budget without raising taxes.
Hugh West October 02, 2012 at 04:50 PM
I'm sorry, but as far as I can tell this is just another case of the Republican Party taking a situation where they could have had a decent chance to secure another office and instead running the weakest candidate they could find. (Like Mitt Romney, like Todd Akin.) Who is Dave Spence? What has he ever done? And why is he not running any ads? I don't think I've seen a campaign ad for him since the primaries.
PaulRevere October 02, 2012 at 05:15 PM
Nixon has been "controlled" by an ALL REPUBLICAN Missouri congress. That is why Missouri has had Balanced Budgets. An all Republican U.S. Congress (House & Senate) will do the same thing for America. A Balanced Budget Amendment is what this country needs. Missouri is the model for America. ME? I am voting for SPENCE & AKIN. If Missouri gets the turnout expected for AKIN,(There is intensity building for him right now) Spence could get coatails.
Votemout2012 October 02, 2012 at 11:07 PM
I am with Paul Revere. I voting straight republican ticket. I believe Intensity building for Akin as well. New Poll out today on RCP page shows Akin only 1% point behind McCaskill with MOE of 2.9% polling of likely voters. We had a pretty good turn out downtown St Louis for the "War on Coal" McCaskill support Akin demonstration at the Peabody building.
Notoakin October 08, 2012 at 05:42 AM
I can't believe somebody would actually vote for akin. He said that rape victims had something in there body to stop them from getting pregnant. Most of us already heard that. And after other republicans came down on him for that he changed his views. But if Charles Jaco never asked him about rape and abortions he would still believe that today. There is also a clip on YouTube showing akin in front of congress saying that abortion doctors are performing abortions on women who don't need it. What????? He also said Medicare is unconstitutional and he wants to get rid of it. He also said student loans are a cancer. With this and other things that this freaking lunatic has said you would think he would be getting trounced in the polls. He isn't. It's actually close. I think it looks bad for Missourians, and all the republicans who are supporting him. It shows what George Washington was saying when he said the party system is bad for the country. People are obviously only voting for akin because he's a republican.

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