Missouri Republicans are bullish on the chances of Secretary of State candidate Shane Schoeller and Lt. Governor Peter Kinder's chances for re-election in November, but a majority are concerned that Dave Spence will not defeat Governor Jay Nixon next month.
That's the biggest finding in the latest Patch "Red Arch" survey, a non-scientific project asking Republican activists questions tied to current issues in the 2012 election cycle. More than 70 people were invited to participate and 30 responded.
When asked "Which statewide candidate are you most concerned about in November," a majority, 64.3 percent, named Spence. Next was Attorney General nominee Ed Martin and State Treasurer nominee Cole McNary at 14.3 percent, and Kinder at 7.1 percent.
Why? Some of the respondents, when given a chance to elaborate on their decisions, cited Spence's lack of name recognition, while others offered more of a commentary on Governor Nixon more than a critique of their own candidate:
"Nixon hasn't done anything "wrong" because he hasn't done anything. That's always hard to beat," said one, while another suggested Nixon' had made political hay from tragedy.
"Nixon has wooed the citizens of Joplin and other southwest voters the last 16 months spending more time there than anywhere else. He has taken great political advantage of the Joplin tornado. I believe that area of the state will be bought off by his actions. That will give him a victory," the respondent wrote.
When asked "Which statewide candidate are you most confident will win in November?" State Rep. Shane Schoeller, running for Secretary of State against Democrat Jason Kander, came in first with 43.3 percent, while 33.3 percent chose Kinder, followed by Ed Martin at 13.3 percent, Dave Spence at 6.7 percent and McNary at 3.3 percent.
When asked if they would want the Democratic National Convention here in St. Louis in 2016 (Local and state officials are expected to launch a new effort to win the event after finishing second to Charlotte in 2012), 60 percent of Republicans who responded said yes, while 40 percent said no.
The Red Arch/Blue Arch Survey
Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. Interviews for this poll were conducted the week of Sept. 4.
Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.
If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.
The Red Arch Roster:
Ruth Springer (former Olivette Mayor), Frederic Steinbach (former Chesterfield Mayor), Randy Jotte (Candidate for Congress), Katy Forand (Gravois Township Committeewoman) Scott Rupp (State Senator/Secretary of State Candidate), Rick Stokes (Wentzville Alderman/State Rep. Candidate), Charlie Hinderliter (State Legislative campaign manager), Mark Parkinson (State Rep.), Chrissy Sommer (State Rep.), Jon Bennett (St. Charles Township Committeeman), Eugene Dokes (Chairman of St. Charles County Republican Central Committee), Chuck Gross (former State Senator), Cheryl Bates (St. Charles Young Republicans President), Penny Henke (St. Charles County Republican Central Committeewoman), Joe Cronin (St. Charles County Council), Terry Hollander (St. Charles County Council), Mike Nunnery (Republican voter), Jim Pepper (O'Fallon City Council), David Blanke (Lewis & Clark Republican Township Committeeman), Robyn Hamlin (Candidate for Congress), Don Bickowski (Jefferson County Council member), Linda Van De Riet (Jefferson County Republican Central Committee member), Renee Reuter (Jefferson County Council Member), D.J. Cully (Jefferson County Council candidate), Roy W. Sims (High Ridge Township Republican committeeman candidate), Celeste Witzel (GOP Committeewoman for the Oakville Township), Alan Leaderbrand (GOP Committeeman for the Lemay Township), Kourtney Lamb (President of the Brentwood Young Republicans), Dennis Broadbooks , (Wild Horse Township), Eileen Tyrrell (Meramec Township Member), Judy Hon (Chesterfield Township Committeewoman), Anne Gassel (Wild Horse Township Committeewoman), Chris Howard (Lafayette Township Committeeman/Convention Delegate), Kevin Rejent (Election Attorney), Richard C. Rowe (Republican voter), Rekha Sharma (State Rep. Candidate), Darin Morley (Reboot Congress blogger), Mark Zinn (GOP Consultant), Cynthia Davis (candidate for Lt. Governor), Sue Allen (State Rep.), Claire Chosid (Republican voter), John Diehl (State Rep.), Lee Presser (blogger/tv host), Ed Martin (Attorney General candidate), Carl Bearden (Former State Rep/Exec. Dir. United for Missouri), Michael Morton (Regional Political Director/Ann Wagner campaign), Christopher Brooks (Candidate For County Central Committee), Marsha Haefner (State Rep.), Cloria Brown (State Rep.), Philip Scherry (Rock Hill Alderman), Derek Michael Spencer (Regional Political Director/Brad Lager For Lt. Gov.), Brian Spencer (State Rep. candidate), Catherine Dreher (Candidate for Committeewoman candidate), Annette Read (Candidate, Missouri River Township GOP Committeewoman), Chris Gard (State Rep. candidate), Anthony Pousosa (St. Louis County Council candidate), Kit Crancer (Chief of Staff, State Senator Jane Cunningham), Cole McNary (Candidate for State Treasurer), Michael Burr (Creve Coeur Township Committee Candidate), Maria Burr (Creve Coeur Township Committee Candidate), Bill Stouffer (Candidate for Secretary of State), Tyler Holyfield (State Rep. Candidate), David Wissler (Gravois Township Committee candidate), Pat Walker (Maryland Heights Township Committee candidate), Maggie Walker (Maryland Heights Township Committee candidate), Scott Pinkham (Boone Township Committee candidate), Teresa Douglas (Lemay Township committee candidate), Larry McGowen (Wildwood City Council), Marc Perez (former State Rep. candidate), Arthur Merdinian (Mayor of Olivette), Walt Young (Former Ballwin Mayor), Bryan Koen (Florissant Township Committeeman)