With election day just over a week away, a survey of GOP officials, activists and voters reveals worries about chances for the party's candidate for the Governor's mansion.
When asked, 'Which statewide candidate are you most confident will win in November,' and given choices in the races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State and Attoney General, 55 point 6 percent selected Peter Kinder, running against Susan Montee for another term as Lt. Governor.
Shane Schoeller, a State Representative running for Secretary of State against another State Representative, Jason Kander, was next at 22 point percent. The remaining candidates, Dave Spence, Ed Martin and Cole McNary, each received 7.4 percent.
When survey participants were asked, Which statewide candidate are you most concerned about in November," Spence, running against incumbent was the leader, with 59 point 3 percent of the vote, followed by Martin (22 point 2 percent), McNary (14 point 8 percent), and Kinder (3 point 7 percent).
Patch asked panelists the same question in late September, and more than 64 percent selected Spence at that time.
Why? In the most recent survey, one respondent cited Spence's lack of name recognition when given a chance to explain the reason for the decision. Said another:
"Spence waited far too long before defining himself on TV. Nixon told the TV audience he had accomplished everything important that government did. Spence failed to correct the record. Spence should have simultaneously pointed out that the Republican Legislature did most of what Nixon was claiming."
Tuesday: Democratic panelists answer the same question about their statewide slate.
The Red Arch/Blue Arch Survey
Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. Interviews for this poll were conducted the week of October 22. The survey included 28 participants.
Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.
If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.
The Red Arch Roster:
Ruth Springer (former Olivette Mayor), Frederic Steinbach (former Chesterfield Mayor), Randy Jotte (Candidate for Congress), Katy Forand (Gravois Township Committeewoman) Scott Rupp (State Senator/Secretary of State Candidate), Rick Stokes (Wentzville Alderman/State Rep. Candidate), Charlie Hinderliter (State Legislative campaign manager), Mark Parkinson (State Rep.), Chrissy Sommer (State Rep.), Jon Bennett (St. Charles Township Committeeman), Eugene Dokes (Chairman of St. Charles County Republican Central Committee), Chuck Gross (former State Senator), Cheryl Bates (St. Charles Young Republicans President), Penny Henke (St. Charles County Republican Central Committeewoman), Joe Cronin (St. Charles County Council), Terry Hollander (St. Charles County Council), Mike Nunnery (Republican voter), Jim Pepper (O'Fallon City Council), David Blanke (Lewis & Clark Republican Township Committeeman), Robyn Hamlin (Candidate for Congress), Don Bickowski (Jefferson County Council member), Linda Van De Riet (Jefferson County Republican Central Committee member), Renee Reuter (Jefferson County Council Member), D.J. Cully (Jefferson County Council candidate), Roy W. Sims (High Ridge Township Republican committeeman candidate), Celeste Witzel (GOP Committeewoman for the Oakville Township), Alan Leaderbrand (GOP Committeeman for the Lemay Township), Kourtney Lamb (President of the Brentwood Young Republicans), Dennis Broadbooks , (Wild Horse Township), Eileen Tyrrell (Meramec Township Member), Judy Hon (Chesterfield Township Committeewoman), Anne Gassel (Wild Horse Township Committeewoman), Chris Howard (Lafayette Township Committeeman/Convention Delegate), Kevin Rejent (Election Attorney), Richard C. Rowe (Republican voter), Rekha Sharma (State Rep. Candidate), Darin Morley (Reboot Congress blogger), Mark Zinn (GOP Consultant), Cynthia Davis (candidate for Lt. Governor), Sue Allen (State Rep.), Claire Chosid (Republican voter), John Diehl (State Rep.), Lee Presser (blogger/tv host), Ed Martin (Attorney General candidate), Carl Bearden (Former State Rep/Exec. Dir. United for Missouri), Michael Morton (Regional Political Director/Ann Wagner campaign), Christopher Brooks (Candidate For County Central Committee), Marsha Haefner (State Rep.), Cloria Brown (State Rep.), Philip Scherry (Rock Hill Alderman), Derek Michael Spencer (Regional Political Director/Brad Lager For Lt. Gov.), Brian Spencer (State Rep. candidate), Catherine Dreher (Candidate for Committeewoman candidate), Annette Read (Candidate, Missouri River Township GOP Committeewoman), Chris Gard (State Rep. candidate), Anthony Pousosa (St. Louis County Council candidate), Kit Crancer (Chief of Staff, State Senator Jane Cunningham), Cole McNary (Candidate for State Treasurer), Michael Burr (Creve Coeur Township Committee Candidate), Maria Burr (Creve Coeur Township Committee Candidate), Bill Stouffer (Candidate for Secretary of State), Tyler Holyfield (State Rep. Candidate), David Wissler (Gravois Township Committee candidate), Pat Walker (Maryland Heights Township Committee candidate), Maggie Walker (Maryland Heights Township Committee candidate), Scott Pinkham (Boone Township Committee candidate), Teresa Douglas (Lemay Township committee candidate), Larry McGowen (Wildwood City Council), Marc Perez (former State Rep. candidate), Arthur Merdinian (Mayor of Olivette), Walt Young (Former Ballwin Mayor), Bryan Koen (Florissant Township Committeeman), Terry Hollander (St. Charles County Council), Mark Harder (Lafayette Township Committeeman, Ballwin Alderman, Pres. Lafayette Twp Republicans), Judy Hon (Chesterfield Township Committeewoman).